Reassessing potential economic value and health impact of effective Shigella vaccines.

The gram-negative bacterium Shigella is a leading cause of diarrheal morbidity and mortality in children in low- and middle-income countries. Several promising vaccine candidates are in late stages of clinical development against this increasingly antibiotic-resistant pathogen. However, considering the increasingly crowded and costly paediatric immunization schedule, and likely advent of other important new vaccines, it is unclear whether introduction of a Shigella vaccine would represent a high priority for international agencies or health ministries in low- and middle-income countries. To determine whether there is a compelling public health value proposition for a Shigella vaccine, we used the World Health Organization's Full Value of Vaccine Assessment analytic framework and formulated five broad scientific, policy, economic and commercial-related propositions regarding the development of a Shigella vaccine. We also explored the current regulatory, clinical, policy and commercial challenges to a Shigella-containing combination vaccine development and adoption. Through a series of literature reviews, expert consultations, social science field studies and model-based analyses, we addressed each of these propositions. As described in a series of separate publications that are synthesized here, we concluded that the economic and public health value of a Shigella vaccine may be greater than previously recognized, particularly if it is found to also be effective against less severe forms of diarrheal disease and childhood stunting. The decision by pharmaceutical companies to develop a standalone vaccine or a multipathogen combination will be a key factor in determining its relative prioritization by various stakeholders in low- and middle-income countries.

La bactérie à Gram négatif Shigella est l'une des principales causes de morbidité et de mortalité diarrhéiques chez les enfants des pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire. Plusieurs candidats vaccins prometteurs sont en phase avancée de conception clinique contre cet agent pathogène qui connaît une antibiorésistance croissante. Toutefois, compte tenu du calendrier de vaccination pédiatrique de plus en plus chargé et coûteux et de l'arrivée probable d'autres nouveaux vaccins importants, il n'est pas certain que la mise sur le marché d'un vaccin contre Shigella constitue une priorité élevée pour les agences internationales ou les ministères de la Santé des pays à revenu faible ou intermédiaire. Pour déterminer l'existence d'un intérêt convaincant en matière de santé publique pour un vaccin contre Shigella, nous avons utilisé le cadre analytique du cadre d'évaluation de la valeur totale des vaccins de l'Organisation mondiale de la santé et formulé cinq propositions scientifiques, politiques, économiques et commerciales générales concernant la conception d'un vaccin contre Shigella. Nous avons également étudié les défis en matière réglementaire, clinique, politique et commerciale qui se posent actuellement à la mise au point et à l'adoption d'un vaccin combiné contenant des Shigella. Nous avons abordé chacune de ces propositions au moyen d'une série d'analyses documentaires, de consultations d'experts, d'études de terrain en sciences sociales et d'analyses basées sur des modèles. Comme décrit dans une série de publications distinctes résumées ici, nous avons conclu que la valeur économique et sur le plan de la santé publique d'un vaccin contre Shigella pourrait être plus importante que ce qui était considéré précédemment, en particulier s'il s'avère que ce vaccin s'avère également efficace contre les formes moins sévères de maladies diarrhéiques et de retard de croissance chez l'enfant. La décision d'entreprises pharmaceutiques de mettre au point un vaccin autonome ou une combinaison de plusieurs agents pathogènes sera un facteur clé dans la détermination de sa priorité relative par les différentes parties prenantes dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire.

La bacteria gramnegativa Shigella es una de las principales causas de morbilidad y mortalidad por diarrea en niños de países de ingresos bajos y medios. Varias vacunas candidatas y prometedoras se encuentran en las últimas fases de desarrollo clínico contra este patógeno cada vez más resistente a los antibióticos. Sin embargo, teniendo en cuenta el esquema de inmunización pediátrica, cada vez más saturado y costoso, y la probable llegada de otras vacunas nuevas importantes, no está claro si la introducción de una vacuna contra la Shigella representaría una alta prioridad para los organismos internacionales o los ministerios de salud de los países de ingresos bajos y medios. Para determinar si existe una propuesta de valor de salud pública convincente para una vacuna contra la Shigella, utilizamos el marco de análisis Full Value of Vaccine Assessment de la Organización Mundial de la Salud y formulamos cinco amplias propuestas científicas, políticas, económicas y comerciales relacionadas con el desarrollo de una vacuna contra la Shigella. También exploramos los actuales desafíos reglamentarios, clínicos, políticos y comerciales para el desarrollo y la adopción de una vacuna combinada que contenga Shigella. Mediante una serie de revisiones bibliográficas, consultas a expertos, estudios de campo de ciencias sociales y análisis basados en modelos, abordamos cada una de estas proposiciones. Como se describe en una serie de publicaciones separadas que se sintetizan aquí, llegamos a la conclusión de que el valor económico y de salud pública de una vacuna contra la Shigella puede ser mayor de lo que se reconocía anteriormente, en particular si se descubre que también es eficaz contra formas menos graves de enfermedad diarreica y retraso del crecimiento infantil. La decisión de las empresas farmacéuticas de desarrollar una vacuna independiente o una combinación multipatógena será un factor clave a la hora de determinar su prioridad relativa por parte de las diversas partes interesadas en los países de ingresos bajos y medios.

Vaccine value profile for Shigella.

Shigella is the leading bacterial cause of diarrhoea and the second leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality among all ages. It also exhibits increasing levels of antibiotic resistance. The greatest burden is among children under five in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As such, a priority strategic goal of the World Health Organization (WHO) is the development of a safe, effective and affordable vaccine to reduce morbidity and mortality from Shigella-attributable dysentery and diarrhea, including long term outcomes associated with chronic inflammation and growth faltering, in children under 5 years of age in LMICs. In addition, a safe and effective Shigella vaccine is of potential interest to travellers and military both to prevent acute disease and rarer, long-term sequelae. An effective Shigella vaccine is also anticipated to reduce antibiotic use and thereby help diminish further emergence of enteric pathogens resistant to antimicrobials. The most advanced vaccine candidates are multivalent, parenteral formulations in Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical studies. They rely on O-antigen-polysaccharide protein conjugate technologies or, alternatively, outer membrane vesicles expressing penta-acylated lipopolysaccharide that has been detoxified. Other parenteral and oral formulations, many delivering a broader array of Shigella antigens, are at earlier stages of clinical development. These formulations are being assessed in alignment with the WHO Preferred Product Characteristics, which call for a 1 to 2 dose primary immunization series given during the first 12 months of life, ideally starting at 6 months of age. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for Shigella is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, government agencies and multi-lateral organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the Shigella VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Shigella and childhood stunting: Evidence, gaps, and future research directions.

Early childhood growth deficits have been shown to have lifelong health and economic impacts, yet their connection to one of their underlying causes, diarrheal diseases, has remained difficult to characterize. Identifying the processes and mechanisms that underlie this link has remained a challenge due to the complexity of the relationship and limitations in access to more advanced laboratory methods. In recent years, however, several large-scale, multisite studies have extensively investigated and reported the prevalence, etiology, and impacts of diarrheal diseases in children under 5 years (CU5) in low- to middle-income countries (LMICs). These studies, in combination with several single-site studies, have applied more advanced laboratory methods to uncover the etiology, true prevalence, infection mechanisms, and inflammation biomarkers of diarrheal disease. Of the multiple pathogens that have been shown to be strongly associated with diarrheal disease in CU5, Shigella is one of the more prevalent and impactful of these pathogens. In this narrative review, we highlight key insights from these studies and identify knowledge gaps and directions for future research. According to these studies, Shigella is most commonly detected in toddlers and young children; however, it can cause more severe disease and has a greater impact on linear growth for infants. Shigella often has a stronger relationship to linear growth faltering (LGF) than other enteropathogens, with higher Shigella loads resulting in greater growth deficits. Future studies should employ more Shigella-specific molecular assays and identify diarrheal etiologies using standardized diagnostics to improve child anthropometric and Shigella surveillance. Also, they should focus on uncovering the mechanisms of the relationship underlying Shigella and growth faltering to better characterize the role of asymptomatic infections and intestinal inflammation in this relationship.

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of Shigella vaccination in 102 low-income and middle-income countries in children aged 5 years or younger: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness models have mostly focused on acute burden. Shigella-attributable moderate-to-severe diarrhoea has been shown to be associated with childhood linear growth faltering. Evidence also links less severe diarrhoea to linear growth faltering. As Shigella vaccines are in late stages of clinical development, we aimed to estimate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against Shigella burden that includes stunting and the acute burden attributable to less severe diarrhoea and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea. METHODS: We used a simulation model to estimate Shigella burden and potential vaccination in children aged 5 years or younger from 102 low-income to middle-income countries from 2025 to 2044. Our model included stunting associated with Shigella-related moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and less severe diarrhoea and we explored vaccination impact on health and economic outcomes. FINDINGS: We estimate 109 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39-204) Shigella-attributable stunting cases and 1·4 million (0·8-2·1) deaths in unvaccinated children over 20 years. We project that Shigella vaccination could avert 43 million (13-92) stunting cases and 590 000 (297 000-983 000) deaths over 20 years. The overall mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$849 (95% uncertainty interval 423-1575; median $790 [IQR 635-1005]) per disability-adjusted life-year averted. Vaccination was most cost-effective in the WHO African region and in low-income countries. Including the burden of Shigella-related less severe diarrhoea improved mean ICERs by 47-48% for these groups and substantially improved ICERs for other regions. INTERPRETATION: Our model suggests that Shigella vaccination would be a cost-effective intervention, with a substantial impact in specific countries and regions. Other regions could potentially benefit upon the inclusion of the burden of Shigella-related stunting and less severe diarrhoea in the analysis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Wellcome Trust.

Projecting the long-term economic benefits of reducing Shigella-attributable linear growth faltering with a potential vaccine: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Linear growth is an important outcome of child development with implications for economic productivity. Enteric infections, particularly Shigella, have been linked to linear growth faltering (LGF). However, benefits from potential reductions in LGF are rarely included in economic analyses of enteric infections. We aimed to quantify the economic benefits of vaccination related to reduced Shigella-attributable disease and associated LGF compared with the net costs of a vaccine programme. METHODS: In this benefit-cost analysis, we modelled productivity benefits in 102 low-income and middle-income countries that had recent stunting estimates available, at least one Shigella-attributable death annually, and available economic data, particularly on gross national income and growth rate projections. We modelled benefits strictly related to linear growth improvements and no other benefits associated with reducing diarrhoeal burden. The effect size in each country was calculated as shifts in height-for-age Z score (HAZ), representing population average changes for preventing Shigella-attributable less-severe diarrhoea and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea separately for children younger than 5 years. Benefits data were calculated per country and combined with estimated net costs of the vaccine programme in the form of benefit-cost ratios (BCRs); BCRs above parity, or $1 in benefits per $1 in costs (with a 10% margin representing borderline results: 1·10:1), were considered cost-beneficial. Countries were aggregated for analysis by WHO region, World Bank income category, and eligibility for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. FINDINGS: In the base-case scenario, all regions exhibited cost-beneficial results, with the South-East Asia region and Gavi-eligible countries exhibiting the highest BCRs (21·67 for the South-East Asia region and 14·45 for Gavi-eligible countries), and the Eastern Mediterranean region yielding the lowest BCRs (2·90). All regions exhibited cost-beneficial results from vaccination, except in more conservative scenarios (eg, those assuming early retirement ages and higher discount rates). Our findings were sensitive to assumed returns for increased height, assumptions about vaccine efficacy against linear growth detriments, the anticipated shift in HAZ, and discount rate. Incorporating the productivity benefits of LGF reduction into existing cost-effectiveness estimates resulted in longer-term cost-savings in nearly all regions. INTERPRETATION: LGF is a secondary outcome of Shigella infection and reduction in LGF is not often quantified as a health or economic benefit of vaccination. However, even under conservative assumptions, a Shigella vaccine only moderately effective against LGF could pay for itself from productivity gains alone in some regions. We recommend that LGF be considered in future models assessing the economic and health impacts of interventions preventing enteric infections. Further research is needed on vaccine efficacy against LGF to inform such models. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust.

Could a Shigella vaccine impact long-term health outcomes?: Summary report of an expert meeting to inform a Shigella vaccine public health value proposition, March 24 and 29, 2021.

Shigellosis is a leading cause of diarrhea and dysentery in young children from low to middle-income countries and adults experiencing traveler's diarrhea worldwide. In addition to acute illness, infection by Shigella bacteria is associated with stunted growth among children, which has been linked to detrimental long-term health, developmental, and economic outcomes. On March 24 and 29, 2021, PATH convened an expert panel to discuss the potential impact of Shigella vaccines on these long-term outcomes. Based on current empirical evidence, this discussion focused on whether Shigella vaccines could potentially alleviate the long-term burden associated with Shigella infections. Also, the experts provided recommendations about how to best model the burden, health and vaccine impact, and economic consequences of Shigella infections. This international multidisciplinary panel included 13 scientists, physicians, and economists from multiple relevant specialties. According to the panel, while the relationship between Shigella infections and childhood growth deficits is complex, this relationship likely exists. Vaccine probe studies are the crucial next step to determine whether vaccination could ameliorate Shigella infection-related long-term impacts. Infants should be vaccinated during their first year of life to maximize their protection from severe acute health outcomes and ideally reduce stunting risk and subsequent negative long-term developmental and health impacts. With vaccine schedule crowding, targeted or combination vaccination approaches would likely increase vaccine uptake in high-burden areas. Shigella impact and economic assessment models should include a wider range of linear growth outcomes. Also, these models should produce a spectrum of results-ones addressing immediate benefits for usual health care decision-makers and others that include broader health impacts, providing a more comprehensive picture of vaccination benefits. While many of the underlying mechanisms of this relationship need better characterization, the remaining gaps can be best addressed by collecting data post-vaccine introduction or through large trials.

What Drives the Value of a Shigella Vaccine?

The development and licensure of a safe and highly efficacious Shigella vaccine has been a priority in international public health circles for decades and would represent a great scientific achievement. Nonetheless, in the context of increasingly crowded and costly childhood immunization programs, and with a myriad of other new and improved vaccines currently or soon on the market, there is no guarantee that even a highly effective Shigella vaccine would become a priority for adoption and introduction by the low- and middle-income countries that could benefit from it the most. We discuss here some of the major determinants and questions regarding the introduction of Shigella vaccines and the importance of developing a succinct, compelling public health value proposition.

Pharmacokinetics and In Vivo Efficacy of Pyrazolopyrimidine, Pyrrolopyrimidine, and 5-Aminopyrazole-4-Carboxamide Bumped Kinase Inhibitors against Toxoplasmosis.

Bumped kinase inhibitors (BKIs) have been shown to be potent inhibitors of Toxoplasma gondii calcium-dependent protein kinase 1. Pyrazolopyrimidine and 5-aminopyrazole-4-carboxamide scaffold-based BKIs are effective in acute and chronic experimental models of toxoplasmosis. Through further exploration of these 2 scaffolds and a new pyrrolopyrimidine scaffold, additional compounds have been identified that are extremely effective against acute experimental toxoplasmosis. The in vivo efficacy of these BKIs demonstrates that the cyclopropyloxynaphthyl, cyclopropyloxyquinoline, and 2-ethoxyquinolin-6-yl substituents are associated with efficacy across scaffolds. In addition, a broad range of plasma concentrations after oral dosing resulted from small structural changes to the BKIs. These select BKIs include anti-Toxoplasma compounds that are effective against acute experimental toxoplasmosis and are not toxic in human cell assays, nor to mice when administered for therapy. The BKIs described here are promising late leads for improving anti-Toxoplasma therapy.

Toxoplasma Calcium-Dependent Protein Kinase 1 Inhibitors: Probing Activity and Resistance Using Cellular Thermal Shift Assays.

In Toxoplasma gondii, calcium-dependent protein kinase 1 (CDPK1) is an essential protein kinase required for invasion of host cells. We have developed several hundred CDPK1 inhibitors, many of which block invasion. Inhibitors with similar 50% inhibitory concentrations (IC50s) were tested in thermal shift assays for their ability to stabilize CDPK1 in cell lysates, in intact cells, or in purified form. Compounds that inhibited parasite growth stabilized CDPK1 in all assays. In contrast, two compounds that showed poor growth inhibition stabilized CDPK1 in lysates but not in cells. Thus, cellular exclusion could explain exceptions in the correlation between the action on the target and cellular activity. We used thermal shift assays to examine CDPK1 in two clones that were independently selected by growth in the CDPK1 inhibitor RM-1-132 and that had increased 50% effective concentrations (EC50s) for the compound. The A and C clones had distinct point mutations in the CDPK1 kinase domain, H201Q and L96P, respectively, residues that lie near one another in the inactive isoform. Purified mutant proteins showed RM-1-132 IC50s and thermal shifts similar to those shown by wild-type CDPK1. Reduced inhibitor stabilization (and a presumed reduced interaction) was observed only in cellular thermal shift assays. This highlights the utility of cellular thermal shift assays in demonstrating that resistance involves reduced on-target engagement (even if biochemical assays suggest otherwise). Indeed, similar EC50s were observed upon overexpression of the mutant proteins, as in the corresponding drug-selected parasites, although high levels of CDPK1(H201Q) only modestly increased resistance compared to that achieved with high levels of wild-type enzyme.

Selective inhibition of Sarcocystis neurona calcium-dependent protein kinase 1 for equine protozoal myeloencephalitis therapy.

Sarcocystis neurona is the most frequent cause of equine protozoal myeloencephalitis, a debilitating neurological disease of horses that can be difficult to treat. We identified SnCDPK1, the S. neurona homologue of calcium-dependent protein kinase 1 (CDPK1), a validated drug target in Toxoplasma gondii. SnCDPK1 shares the glycine "gatekeeper" residue of the well-characterized T. gondii enzyme, which allows the latter to be targeted by bumped kinase inhibitors. This study presents detailed molecular and phenotypic evidence that SnCDPK1 can be targeted for rational drug development. Recombinant SnCDPK1 was tested against four bumped kinase inhibitors shown to potently inhibit both T. gondii (Tg) CDPK1 and T. gondii tachyzoite growth. SnCDPK1 was inhibited by low nanomolar concentrations of these BKIs and S. neurona growth was inhibited at 40-120nM concentrations. Thermal shift assays confirmed these bumped kinase inhibitors bind CDPK1 in S. neurona cell lysates. Treatment with bumped kinase inhibitors before or after invasion suggests that bumped kinase inhibitors interfere with S. neurona mammalian host cell invasion in the 0.5-2.5µM range but interfere with intracellular division at 2.5µM. In vivo proof-of-concept experiments were performed in a murine model of S. neurona infection. The experimental infected groups treated for 30days with compound BKI-1553 (n=10 mice) had no signs of disease, while the infected control group had severe signs and symptoms of infection. Elevated antibody responses were found in 100% of control infected animals, but only 20% of BKI-1553 treated infected animals. Parasites were found in brain tissues of 100% of the control infected animals, but only in 10% of the BKI-1553 treated animals. The bumped kinase inhibitors used in these assays have been chemically optimized for potency, selectivity and pharmacokinetic properties, and hence are good candidates for treatment of equine protozoal myeloencephalitis.

Development of an Orally Available and Central Nervous System (CNS) Penetrant Toxoplasma gondii Calcium-Dependent Protein Kinase 1 (TgCDPK1) Inhibitor with Minimal Human Ether-a-go-go-Related Gene (hERG) Activity for the Treatment of Toxoplasmosis.

New therapies are needed for the treatment of toxoplasmosis, which is a disease caused by the protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii. To this end, we previously developed a potent and selective inhibitor (compound 1) of Toxoplasma gondii calcium-dependent protein kinase 1 (TgCDPK1) that possesses antitoxoplasmosis activity in vitro and in vivo. Unfortunately, 1 has potent human ether-a-go-go-related gene (hERG) inhibitory activity, associated with long Q-T syndrome, and consequently presents a cardiotoxicity risk. Here, we describe the identification of an optimized TgCDPK1 inhibitor 32, which does not have a hERG liability and possesses a favorable pharmacokinetic profile in small and large animals. 32 is CNS-penetrant and highly effective in acute and latent mouse models of T. gondii infection, significantly reducing the amount of parasite in the brain, spleen, and peritoneal fluid and reducing brain cysts by >85%. These properties make 32 a promising lead for the development of a new antitoxoplasmosis therapy.

SAR Studies of 5-Aminopyrazole-4-carboxamide Analogues as Potent and Selective Inhibitors of Toxoplasma gondii CDPK1.

We previously discovered compounds based on a 5-aminopyrazole-4-carboxamide scaffold to be potent and selective inhibitors of CDPK1 from T. gondii. The current work, through structure-activity relationship studies, led to the discovery of compounds (34 and 35) with improved characteristics over the starting inhibitor 1 in terms of solubility, plasma exposure after oral administration in mice, or efficacy on parasite growth inhibition. Compounds 34 and 35 were further demonstrated to be more effective than 1 in a mouse infection model and markedly reduced the amount of T. gondii in the brain, spleen, and peritoneal fluid, and 35 given at 20 mg/kg eliminated T. gondii from the peritoneal fluid.

Potent and selective inhibitors of CDPK1 from T. gondii and C. parvum based on a 5-aminopyrazole-4-carboxamide scaffold.

5-Aminopyrazole-4-carboxamide was used as an alternative scaffold to substitute for the pyrazolopyrimidine of a known "bumped kinase inhibitor" to create selective inhibitors of calcium-dependent protein kinase-1 from both Toxoplasma gondii and Cryptosporidium parvum. Compounds with low nanomolar inhibitory potencies against the target enzymes were obtained. The most selective inhibitors also exhibited submicromolar activities in T. gondii cell proliferation assays and were shown to be non-toxic to mammalian cells.

New methods for estimating the tuberculosis case detection rate in high-HIV prevalence countries: the example of Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: To develop new methods for estimating the sputum smear-positive tuberculosis case detection rate (CDR) in a country where infection with HIV is prevalent. METHODS: We estimated the smear-positive tuberculosis CDR in HIV-negative and HIV-positive adults, and in all adults in Kenya. Data on time trends in tuberculosis case notification rates and on HIV infection prevalence in adults and in tuberculosis patients were used, along with data on tuberculosis control programme performance. FINDINGS: In 2006, the estimated smear-positive tuberculosis CDR in HIV-negative adults was 79% (95% confidence interval, CI: 64-94) and in HIV-positive adults, 57% (95% CI: 26-88), giving a weighted mean of 68% (95% CI: 49-87). The separate estimate for all smear-positive tuberculosis cases was 72% (95% CI: 53-91), giving an overall average for the three estimates of 70% (95% CI: 58-82). As the tuberculosis CDR in 1996 was 57% (95% CI: 47-67), the estimated increase by 2006 was 13 percentage points (95% CI: 6-20), or 23%. This increase was accompanied by a more than doubling of the resources devoted to tuberculosis control in Kenya, including facilities and staff. CONCLUSION: Using three approaches to estimate the tuberculosis CDR in a country where HIV infection is prevalent, we showed that expansion of the tuberculosis control programme in Kenya led to an increase of 23% in the CDR between 1996 and 2006. While the methods developed here can be applied in other countries with a high prevalence of HIV infection, they rely on precise data on trends in such prevalence in the general population and among tuberculosis patients.